Artificial Debris Collision Risk Following a Catastrophic Spacecraft Mishap in Lunar Orbit

Authors

Nathan R. Boone, Air Force Institute of Technology
Robert A. Bettinger, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

9-2021

Abstract

This research analyzes the effects of a catastrophic spacecraft mishap in a polar lunar orbit in terms of the risks posed toa notional lunar spacecraft operating in an Apollo-like, equatorial lunar orbit. Robust models for lunar trajectories, the survivability of spacecraft threatened by debris, and the vulnerability of spacecraft to debris are developed and used to quantify the risks from artificial lunar debris. The results of this research showed total one-month hazard probabilities on the order of about 10⁻³%. While low, this probability could create some concern in real-world missions and maybe comparable to the risk from debris in orbits near Earth. The majority of the debris particles had not decayed to thelunar surface by the end of the one-month simulation, which resulted in risk levels that did not diminish within onemonth. The results of this study demonstrate the need to consider debris mitigation strategies in lunar orbit, especiallyas more spacecraft begin to operate in this orbital environment.

Comments

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Source Publication

2021 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS)

Recommended Citation

Boone, N. R., & Bettinger, R. A. (2021, September). Artificial Debris Collision Risk Following a Catastrophic Spacecraft Mishap in Lunar Orbit. 2021 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS). 2021 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS), Maui, HI.