A Learning Curve Model Accounting for the Flattening Effect in Production Cycles

Authors

Evan R. Boone
John J. Elshaw, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Clay M. Koschnick, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Jonathan D. Ritschel, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Adedeji B. Badiru, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-2021

Abstract

We investigate production cost estimates to identify and model modifications to a prescribed learning curve. Our new model examines the learning rate as a decreasing function over time as opposed to a constant rate that is frequently used. The purpose of this research is to determine whether a new learning curve model could be implemented to reduce the error in cost estimates for production processes. A new model was created that mathematically allows for a “flattening effect,” which typically occurs later in the production process. This model was then compared to Wright’s learning curve, which is a popular method used by many organizations today. The results showed a statistically significant reduction in error through the measurement of the two error terms, Sum of Squared Errors and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

Comments

Defense ARJ is published by the Defense Acquisition University. The journal's online version is hosted at https://www.dau.edu/library/arj/

DOI

10.22594/10.22594/dau.20-850.28.01

Source Publication

Defense Acquisition Research Journal

Recommended Citation

Boone, E. R., Elshaw, J. J., Koschnick, C. M., Ritschel, J. D., & Badiru, A. B. (2021). A learning curve model accounting for the flattening effect in production cycles. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 28(1), 72–97. https://doi.org/10.22594/10.22594/dau.20-850.28.01