Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

9-16-2023

Abstract

Spacecraft breakup events were simulated in the vicinity of the Lunar Gateway’s Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit to evaluate the risk of debris collision with the station. The Monte Carlo simulations model the breakup of an object shortly after deployment from the Gateway, and using the propagated trajectories of over a million particles across 5,000 random breakup events, the likelihood of collision with the Gateway is statistically evaluated. Approaches within 10 km were observed for only 2.4% of the breakup events, suggesting a low risk of collision, but approaches at larger distances that might still generate a debris avoidance maneuver were relatively likely. Changes in velocity at deployment of above 4 m/s appeared to lower the risk of collision. The risk was highest at about 1.57 days after the breakup but dropped rapidly as the vast majority of objects departed the Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit within weeks. After one year, about 20% of the fragments had impacted the Moon, 61% had escaped the Earth-Moon system, and 19% remained elsewhere in cislunar space. Few objects would intersect useful near-Earth orbits and there were very few Earth impacts. The results of this study provide quantifiable insight into the risk of debris collision with the Gateway that can be used to develop operational plans to mitigate this risk.

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Copyright © 2023 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS)

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2023 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS)

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