10.1080/02664763.2021.2008328">
 

Bimodality in reentry latitude predictions for spacecraft in prograde orbits

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-2023

Abstract

Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of atmospheric reentry latitude predictions are shown to be bimodal for spacecraft in low-eccentricity, prograde low Earth orbits at altitudes of 300 km and lower. Using two-line element (TLE) data for initial orbit conditions, coupled with coarse estimates for spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, parametric simulations produce bimodal distributions that suggest a greater likelihood of reentry near the latitudinal maxima of a given spacecraft's ground track. Various computational measures are used to test for and quantify bimodality in the reentry latitude data sets. Also, a method for approximating bandwidth is introduced for the kernel estimation of reentry latitude probability density. Overall, statistical analysis indicates that actual reentry latitudes are generally within 1-σ of observed hemisphere means as demonstrated by six historical reentry cases.

Comments

The full text of this article is available via subscription or purchase using the DOI link below.

Source Publication

Journal of Applied Statistics (ISSN 0266-4763)

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS