Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
5-25-2023
Abstract
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.
Source Publication
The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology (ISSN 1548-5129 | eISSN 1557-380X)
Recommended Citation
Canoy J, Bettinger R. Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation. 2023;0(0). doi:10.1177/15485129231163868
Comments
This article was published as an article of JDMS in May 2023 ahead of inclusion in an issue of the journal. The citation on this page will be updated when that occurs. The article is accessible by subscription using the DOI link below.