Long-Term Evolution of Debris Clouds in Low Lunar Orbit
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
9-16-2022
Abstract
Simulations of spacecraft breakup events in lunar orbit are conducted with the aim of determining the longevity of the resulting debris and the hazards it could pose. The trajectories of approximately 73,000 debris particles across six Monte Carlo breakup simulations are propagated using a high-precision lunar trajectory model. Debris was found to be especially long-lasting for breakups in circular polar orbits at 200 km altitude and in retrograde equatorial orbits at 100 km or higher, with the majority of the debris not decaying during the one-year simulation time window. Analysis of the locations at which polar-orbiting debris tended to impact the Moon reveals a surprising asymmetry and significant accumulations in certain regions. Finally, estimates of the collision probability over one year to other notional spacecraft varied from 10−9 to 10−13, suggesting a low risk of collision, but a significant number of close approaches within 5 km were observed. The results of this study provide new insights into the overall behavior of debris in lunar orbit and improve understanding of the consequences of a debris event in this orbital environment.
Source Publication
2022 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS)
Recommended Citation
Boone, N. R., & Bettinger, R. A. (2022, September 16). Long-Term Evolution of Debris Clouds in Low Lunar Orbit. 2022 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS). 2022 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS), Maui, HI.
Comments
Copyright © 2022 Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS)
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