Cost Estimation Trends for Major Defense Acquisition Programs

Authors

Sammantha Jones, Air Force Life Cycle Management CenterFollow
Edward D. White, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Jonathan D. Ritschel, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Shawn M. Valentine, Air Force Life Cycle Management CenterFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-2023

Abstract

The authors use both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate average and standard deviation trends in cost estimates for major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) grouped into decades from the 1970s to 2010s. For total program-cost-growth factors (CGFs), the 2010s exhibited lower CGFs compared to the 1990s. For the program-acquisition-unit cost (PAUC) CGFs, the 2010s appear lower than the 1990s and borderline lower than the 1970s. A statistically significant decreasing trend in the standard deviations of total program CGFs throughout the decades was identified. This lowering variability trend also appeared for PAUC CGFs from the 1980s onward. This finding appears to be the first documented case known to us. This decreasing variability of cost estimates suggests to us that cost estimating and/or the process behind it might be improving over time.

Comments

Defense ARJ is published by the Defense Acquisition University. The journal's online version is hosted at https://www.dau.edu/library/darj

DOI

10.22594/dau.22-894.30.02

Source Publication

Defense Acquisition Research Journal

Recommended Citation

Sammantha, J. J., White, E. D., Ritschel J. D., & Valentine, S. M. (2023). Cost estimation trends for major defense acquisition programs. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 30(2), 96-123. https://doi.org/10.22594/dau.22-894.30.02