An Analysis of Ground Test and On-Orbit Failures of American Spacecraft
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
10-23-2023
Abstract
In the space community, there is a need to depart from traditional philosophies of spacecraft testing in order to get spacecraft in orbit faster. There is a growing trend to leverage more affordable and/or simple systems, along with a risk threshold that is accepting higher failures as a means to accomplish mission needs. This paper is one part of a larger research effort that seeks to find a middle way between traditional exquisite systems and high-volume, high-risk systems through balancing timelines via truncation/omission and the confidence in spacecraft survivability in nominal operations. The goal of this paper in particular is to characterize the frequency and time impacts of discrepancies found at the systems level of integration of test of 27 American spacecraft sampled from six constellations launched since circa 2000. This research considers statistical trends in categorical discrepancies (anomalies) during prelaunch integration and test (I&T) between past and present data. Additionally, initial preliminary anomaly trends in operational on-orbit data available from 11 of these spacecraft are also statistically analyzed in the same manner. These results will be further analyzed in future research to identify any correlations between prelaunch tests and operational space vehicle reliability, which will enable the characterizing space vehicle reliability through accounting for the assessed reliability of individual subsystems/components, together with the number and characteristics of component/system testing both performed and not performed. This in turn will be used to provide a quantitative means to demonstrate how the spacecraft I&T flow can be optimized for mission needs when balancing risk.
Source Publication
Accelerating Space Commerce, Exploration, and New Discovery Conference, ASCEND 2023
Recommended Citation
Tullino, S. K., Keys, A. S., Bettinger, R. A., Cox, A. M., & Jacques, D. R. (2023b). A Conceptual Spacecraft Operational Survivability Estimation Based on Pre-Launch Test and Evaluation. 2023 7th International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS), 265–271. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS59833.2023.10381447
Comments
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