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Validating Multi-Resolution Aircraft Models with Probabilities of Agreement

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2024

Abstract

Modeling and simulation capabilities help the Department of Defense to organize, train, education, equip, and employ current and future forces for the full range of operations. Within the military analytic domain, validation activities and the study of the appropriateness of modeling and simulation is a growing area of professional concern. In this article, a recent functional response validation metric, the probability-of-agreement validation metric, is detailed, which enables informed comparisons between military simulation models and the real-world systems or processes they emulate. The metric is the probability that the difference between functional responses at the same design point fall within a range deemed acceptable. The corresponding probability-of-agreement plot summarizes agreement transparently and directly across typical measured values while accounting for potentially complicated bias and variability structures. We demonstrate its applicability in the military analytic domain using a validation exercise involving the comparison of two multi-resolution, high-fidelity F-16 aircraft simulation models.

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Military Operations Research

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