The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly highlight the importance of incompressibility (the amount of a process that is automated) in learning curve estimating.
Defense Acquisition Research Journal
Moore, J. R., Elshaw, J. J., Badiru, A. B., & Ritcschel, J. D. (2015). Acquisition Challenge: The Importance of Incompressibility in Comparing Learning Curve Models. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 22(4), 416–449.
Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, Government Contracts Commons
Defense ARJ is published by the Defense Acquisition University. The journal's online version is hosted at https://www.dau.edu/library/arj/
The DOI for this article is defunct, and omitted here.