Acquisition Challenge: The Importance of Incompressibility in Comparing Learning Curve Models

Authors

Justin R. Moore
John J. Elshaw, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Adedeji B. Badiru, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Jonathan D. Ritschel, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-2015

Abstract

The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly highlight the importance of incompressibility (the amount of a process that is automated) in learning curve estimating.

Comments

Defense ARJ is published by the Defense Acquisition University. The journal's online version is hosted at https://www.dau.edu/library/arj/

The DOI for this article is defunct, and omitted here.

Source Publication

Defense Acquisition Research Journal

Recommended Citation

Moore, J. R., Elshaw, J. J., Badiru, A. B., & Ritcschel, J. D. (2015). Acquisition Challenge: The Importance of Incompressibility in Comparing Learning Curve Models. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 22(4), 416–449.