Date of Award

3-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Engineering Management

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Justin D. Delorit, PhD

Abstract

Military airfields and civilian airports serve as foundational nodes in the global transportation network, enabling travel, economic growth, and the projection of national security. This study investigates the relationship between climate variables projected through climate change and pavement degradation, with a focus on Fairchild Air Force Base (AFB). Using principal component regression (PCR), the research integrates historical pavement condition index (PCI) data with climate variables, including snowfall, precipitation, freeze-thaw cycles, solar irradiance, and wind speed to develop a predictive model of pavement performance under future climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These models, for both Portland cement concrete (PCC) and asphalt concrete (AC), can then be applied to current airport pavement management systems (APMS) to create more certain models for engineers to base allocation of funding. Informing investment strategies is an essential portion of the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Air Force (AF) as the world climate shifts. The findings of the research show that both PCC and AC will degrade at a faster rate under the higher emissions scenario. The results further indicate that climate-change driven degradation will have a significant financial impact on airfield pavement maintenance. The total cost to maintain Fairchild AFB will be upwards of $48.9B if changes are not made to investment or to climate change reduction strategies.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-25-M-100

Comments

An embargo was observed for this posting.

Approved for public release, Distribution Unlimited. PA Case Number 88ABW-2025-0295

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