Date of Award

3-2000

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Engineering Physics

First Advisor

Michael K. Walters, PhD

Abstract

This thesis uses statistical analysis to forecast the probability of meeting or exceeding the maximum allowable wind speeds for each of the launch pads at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). Wind data were collected from the Weather Information Network Display System (WINDS), a collection of 47 meteorological towers located throughout KSC and CCAS, over a period of five winters. A Fortran program was written to calculate conditional probabilities of meeting or exceeding a given threshold speed during eight consecutive one-hour periods, using the current wind direction and peak wind speed as inputs. Forecast probabilities were displayed in a table according to time period and wind direction. Accuracy was measured by constructing contingency tables and calculating various measures of accuracy. Results were tested for significance by calculating p-values for the chi-square test. This method was found to have very little skill in forecasting maximum wind speeds. It is not recommended for operational use.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GM-ENP-00M-04

DTIC Accession Number

ADA383834

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

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