Date of Award

3-2007

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Marcus B. Perry, PhD

Second Advisor

Sharif H. Melouk, PhD

Abstract

This thesis utilizes game theory within a framework for updating optimal decisions based on new information as it becomes available. Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker or a random component nature. Utility theory is applied to account for the different risk preferences of the decision makers. Furthermore, response surface methodology is used to explore good risk strategies for the decision maker to approach each situation with. The techniques are applied to a combat scenario, a football game, and a terrorist resource allocation problem, providing a decision maker with the best possible strategy given the information available to him. The results are intuitive and exemplify the benefits of using the methods.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-07-13

DTIC Accession Number

ADA466605

Comments

Co-advised thesis.

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