Date of Award

3-23-2018

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Engineering Management

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Alfred E. Thal, Jr., PhD.

Abstract

The United States Air Force seeks to address power grid vulnerability and bolster energy resilience through the use of renewable energy sources. Air Force Institute of Technology engineers designed and manufactured control systems to monitor power production from the most widely-used silicon-based solar cells at 38 testing locations around the globe spanning the majority of climate types. Researchers conducted multivariate regression analysis to establish a statistical relationship between photovoltaic power output, ambient temperature, and humidity pertaining to monocrystalline and polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. Formulated models first characterized power output globally, then by specific climate type with general inaccuracy. Location-specific models are provided with varying accuracy, allowing a number of locations to predict energy output and make decisions regarding future energy projects. It was found that additional predictor variables are required to hone model accuracy. Recommendations are made that modify the current study for the purpose of increasing data quality as well as ensuring the validity and accuracy of resulting regression models and the future ability to forecast power production for use by decision-making authorities. Further, a full year of measurements combined with proposed modifications will demonstrate feasibility of utilizing horizontal photovoltaic technology.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-18-M-180

DTIC Accession Number

AD1056445

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