Date of Award

3-23-2018

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Richard F. Deckro, PhD.

Abstract

The transition of advanced technologies from their nascent state to viable commercial entities is a critical step in assuring the United States' national technological superiority and support is often required to incubate such technological developments. We propose a spiral development to investigate the possible scenarios, underlying economics, and risk associated with scaling up carbon nanotube (CNT) production to a commercially viable scale. As the first stage of this proposed effort, this study characterizes the potential scenarios by which a CNT manufacturing company can generate positive annual net revenue and potentially be considered a competitive manufacturer of CNT products on an industrial scale. Subsequent stages of this effort will determine the potential risks associated with investing in the current CNT research and production efforts from a macro perspective. This study investigates the necessary adoption fractions, contact rates, production capacities, production costs, product prices, monetary support, and time necessary for the company of interest to be considered a commercially viable producer of CNT products. The subsidization required to generate varied profit margins is also explored. The application of sys- tem dynamics models determined to approximately represent the real diffusion and production of both CNT sheet and CNT yarn products generates insight regarding policy improvement for the company to achieve competitive commercial CNT production and provide an assessment of when CNT production may be profitable. This study should not be used as the basis for decision making due to the fact that the analysis is based on notional data and scenarios.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-18-M-139

DTIC Accession Number

AD1056373

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