Purpose: The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.
Design/methodology/approach: Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS B) to initial operational capability (IOC).
Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
Trudelle, R., White, E. D., Ritschel, D., Koschnick, C., & Lucas, B. (2017). Modeling median will-cost estimates for defense acquisition programs. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 1(1), 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1108/JDAL-04-2017-0004