Purpose: This paper aims to examine how the regional variable in country conflict modeling affects forecast accuracy and identifies a methodology to further improve the predictions.
Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses statistical learning methods to both evaluate the quantity of data for clustering countries along with quantifying accuracy according to the number of clusters used.
Findings: This study demonstrates that increasing the number of clusters for modeling improves the ability to predict conflict as long as the models are robust.
Originality/value: This study investigates the quantity of clusters used in conflict modeling, while previous research assumes a specific quantity before modeling.
Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
Leiby, B. and Ahner, D. (2023), "A hierarchical cluster approach toward understanding the regional variable in country conflict modeling", Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, Vol. 7 No. 1, pp. 48-68. https://doi-org.afit.idm.oclc.org/10.1108/JDAL-11-2022-0011