Analyzing Cost Growth at Program Stages for DoD Aircraft

Authors

Scott J. Kozlak
Edward D. White, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Jonathan D. Ritschel, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow
Brandon Lucas
Michael J. Seibel

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-2017

Abstract

This research examines Cost Growth Factors (CGF) at various program stages for 30 Department of Defense aircraft programs. From Milestone (MS) B, the authors determine CGFs at the Critical Design Review (CDR), First Flight (FF), Development Test and Evaluation End, Initial Operational Capability (IOC), and Full Operational Capability. They find development CGFs are significantly larger than procurement CGFs. Additionally, cost growth primarily occurs early in the program. At CDR, which occurs on average at the 12 percent completion point of a program, aircraft programs had already experienced on average 15 percent of their total program cost growth. The first spike in percent of total cost growth occurs at FF, 35 months or ~3 years after MS B. Lastly, the analysis shows that by IOC (approximately 6.5 years after MS B or 48 percent of program completion), an aircraft program realizes 91 percent of its total cost growth.

Comments

Defense ARJ is published by the Defense Acquisition University. The journal's online version is hosted at https://www.dau.edu/library/arj/

The DOI for this article is defunct, and omitted here.

Source Publication

Defense Acquisition Research Journal

Recommended Citation

Kozlak, S. J., White, E. D., Ritschel, J. D. Lucas, B., & Seibel, M. J. (2017). Analyzing cost growth at program stages for DoD aircraft. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 24(3), 386–407.