Date of Award

3-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Michael J. Brown, PhD

Abstract

This thesis examines the evolving trends in commercial satellite payloads with an emphasis on mass, operating power, and project duration overall and across different payload types, serving as a benchmark for Department of Defense (DoD) leaders to compare against private industry advancements. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of open-source commercial satellite data, this study identifies significant trends that could influence cost estimation, schedule estimation, and satellite design. The analysis not only highlights the technological progression over several decades but also provides a comparative insight into how the United States and China are positioned in their race for space dominance. Beyond detecting trends, this study seeks to inform analysts on which data should and should not be included in the development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) through statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn’s tests. The findings underscore the importance of aligning DoD satellite capabilities with commercial sector advancements to maintain a competitive edge in space technology. This research contributes to a better understanding of the satellite industry’s evolution and provides a basis for refining CERs to better reflect current and future satellite capabilities.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-25-M-076

Comments

An embargo was observed for posting this thesis.

This work is marked Distribution A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number 88ABW-2025-0338

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