Markus Case

Date of Award

3-27-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Ryan B. Walton, PhD

Abstract

United States Air Force (USAF) operations rely on sortie generation, a complex system involving aircraft maintenance, operational planning, munitions, security forces, and aircrew. Failures in any of these areas can jeopardize a mission, and extreme weather events such as lightning, high winds, and snow further complicate operations. This thesis examines the impact of extreme weather on sortie generation, focusing on developing a data-driven discrete-event simulation (DES) to predict generation timelines and identify high-risk areas. The model allows users to adjust key inputs, including the month, number of aircraft, processing times, and personnel/equipment availability. By simulating real-world conditions, the model helps operational planners optimize sortie generation and assess risks at northern-tier bases. As a flexible, data-driven tool, the model is adaptable to any base or airframe and provides a virtual representation of the process for decision-making. Results indicate increased risks during extreme weather, highlighting the need for proactive mitigation strategies.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-25-M-182

Comments

This work is marked Distribution A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number 8ABW-2025-0261

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