Date of Award

9-1991

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

John E. Sullivan III, Captain, USAF

Abstract

This research assessed the performance of the Spare Parts for the Activation of Relocated Systems (SPARES) forecast model used to develop the spares requirements forecast for the August 1988 activation of the 174TFW at Syracuse ANGB NY. SPARES was developed by the Air Force Logistics Management Center in August 1988 to replace existing Standard Base Supply System (SBSS) forecasting procedures. SPARES uses mission change data (MCD) from five similar-size source bases to determine the probability of future demand (PFD) for items at the gaining base. Before implementing SPARES in the SBSS, forecast performance must be measured and model weaknesses identified and corrected. SPARES correctly forecasted 72 percent of the demanded items when PFD or 20 percent was used; however, 58 percent of the items forecasted did not have subsequent demands. SPARES forecasted 692 items which had less than two customer demands at the five source bases combined. This indicates either the model's program coding is incorrect or deficiencies exist in theoretical program logic. Deficiencies in the MCD collection system also had an impact on SPARES performance. Based on these findings, SPARES program coding and logic as well as the MCD collection system must be reviewed before SPARES is implemented in the SBSS.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GLM-LSM-91S-7

DTIC Accession Number

ADA246643

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Systems and Logistics of the Air Force Institute of Technology, Air University, in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science

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