Date of Award

3-1991

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Bruce W. Morlan, Major, USAF

Abstract

Deterring potential Soviet aggression depends on our ability to hold at risk those assets they value most. This research investigates target valuation as an added dimension to force structure analysis. An extensive literature review is followed by the development and demonstration of a methodology defining development and use target values. The literature review covers arms control concepts to give a foundation for an important use of force structure analysis. It also covers measures of effectiveness. The final part of the review is comprised of definitions of perspectives on nuclear war. The methodology defines motivations for force structuring in the form of four wars; the deterrent and warfighting wars from both the United States and Soviet perspectives. Once the target bases are established, weights are assigned to each target category and ultimately target values are assigned to each target. To demonstrate the methodology, the Arsenal Exchange Model is used as a tool. The Blue Deterrent and Warfighting Wars are demonstrated using unclassified and notional data to test the effect of target valuation. The analysis of value systems can be helpful to develop understanding among all players in the strategic arena.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GST-ENS-91M-4

DTIC Accession Number

ADA238385

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted

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