Application of Influence Diagrams in Identifying Soviet Satellite Missions

Author

Cary C. Chun

Date of Award

12-1990

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

Abstract

This thesis investigates the feasibility of applying influence diagrams to capture expert knowledge and incorporate decision theory to construct a Soviet satellite mission prediction model. Before a Soviet launch occurs, formulations of the model's prior probability distribution allows the input of expert knowledge and any available information. As the predictive variables of the model become known, the information is used to successively refine the estimate of the probable mission, thereby, reducing the uncertainty in the model. Discretizing is used to approximate continuous variables as discrete variables which successfully allows the combination of both variable types in a single influence diagram model. Results of testing and recommendations for continued research are presented.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GSO-ENS-90D-7

DTIC Accession Number

ADA230752

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

Recommended Citation

Chun, Cary C., "Application of Influence Diagrams in Identifying Soviet Satellite Missions" (1990). Theses and Dissertations. 8079.
https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/8079