Date of Award

3-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

First Advisor

Robert A. Bettinger, PhD

Abstract

Space launch vehicle reliability is imperative to understand since launch vehicles are crucial in getting payloads into space for a hopefully successful mission. This thesis examines the reliability of commercial, civil, and military space launch vehicles through trend analysis and a variety of statistical methods. Data sets obtained from the Seradata database are analyzed for trends by looking at data subsets including launch date, launch country, final mission orbit, section (commercial, civil or military), launch vehicle family and failed subsystem. First-level Bayesian analysis and mean success rates are performed, primarily split up by launch vehicle family and total launches, and the results analyzed. Bayesian estimation techniques are the common practice in launch vehicle reliability studies currently published and provide great insight about both infant and mature space launch vehicles. Using Bayesian analysis techniques and trend analysis, many conclusions are made throughout this document related to overall launch reliability, country and sector specific launch reliability, and deep space related mission launch reliability. Trend analysis was performed on 1873 launches that occurred during the period 2000 to 2023 and it was found that while the number of launches has begun to exponentially increased over the 23-year period, the number of failures stayed within 10% of total launches each year, with the average success rate being 95% annually. 56% of launches were sent into low-Earth orbits (LEO) and 32% were sent into geosynchronous equatorial (GEO) orbits. Although both had success rates above 92%, LEO launches accounted for 73% of total launch failures while GEO launches accounted for 18% of launch failures. Specifically, looking at U.S. and Russian vehicles, the main system where failure occurred was withing the propulsion system where 72.3% of 47 reported launch failures. First-level Bayesian techniques were performed on 49 launch vehicle families and it was found that vehicles with a high accrual of launches performed better, resulting in first-level success rates of greater than 90%.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENY-MS-24-M-211

Comments

A 12-month embargo was observed for posting this work on AFIT Scholar.

Distribution Statement A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number on file.

Related organizations and units for this Masters thesis:

  • Center for Space Research and Assurance (CSRA) at AFIT
  • Aerospace Systems Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/RQ)

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