Developing a Rule-of-thumb to Predict Total O&S Costs Utilizing a Single CES Element

Author

Shane A. Scantling

Date of Award

3-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Scott T. Drylie, PhD

Abstract

A rule of thumb is a broadly accurate guide based on experience rather than theory. This study examines the potential for a rule of thumb to predict Operation and Sustainment (O&S) costs. The Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) found that a single variable could accurately predict total O&S costs. We found that while a single variable could be highly predictive and strongly correlated to total O&S costs, it is not the same variable for all platforms. We improved upon this initial heuristic proposed by Stumborg by developing an individual heuristic for each Mission Design (MD). We found that a form of manpower was the most predictive element at both the 2 and 3 Level Cost Element Structure (CES).

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-24-M-159

Comments

A 12-month embargo was observed for posting this work on AFIT Scholar.

Distribution Statement A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number on file.

Recommended Citation

Scantling, Shane A., "Developing a Rule-of-thumb to Predict Total O&S Costs Utilizing a Single CES Element" (2024). Theses and Dissertations. 7768.
https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/7768