Date of Award
3-2024
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Cost Analysis
Department
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
First Advisor
Edward D. White III, PhhD
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between acquisition programs within the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (LCMC) and budgetary assessments from both the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR & STTR) programs, as well as Congressional Rescissions. It analyzes the tendency and severity of budget cuts across different programs, considering factors such as completion time, budget activities, and a variable akin to true Acquisition Category (ACAT) levels. Key findings include a significant difference in the rates of proportion of programs assessed between appropriations 3010 (23.65%) and 3600 (67.05%) from fiscal years 2010-2023. The research indicates a higher stability and predictability in SBIR/STTR assessments compared to Congressional Rescissions, advising against planning for the latter due to unpredictability. The analysis also updates and expands upon a 2016 study, providing a more current understanding of assessment rates and offering refined budget planning recommendations for LCMC cost estimators. Specifically, it suggests different expected cut percentages for appropriations 3600 and 3010 when assessments are applied to every program in a "peanut butter spread" method for a more accurate forecasting in current fiscal environments. The study's analysis of appropriations for the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (LCMC) from 2010-2023 updates and extends a 2016 study, offering new budget planning recommendations based on recent data. The 2016 study advised expecting a weighted mean cut of 2.21% for appropriations 3600 overall, 2.62% for 3600 SBIR/STTR, and 2.18% for 3010. In contrast, the current study suggests planning for a weighted mean cut of 3.08% for appropriations 3600 in general, 2.10% for 3600 SBIR/STTR, and a notably higher 4.55% for 3010, reflecting changes in budgetary assessment trends and providing more accurate guidance for cost estimators within the LCMC.
AFIT Designator
AFIT-ENV-MS-24-M-152
Recommended Citation
Palmer, Bryan N., "Exploring Fiscal Year Budget Assessments: A Look at SBIR/STTR and Congressional Rescissions" (2024). Theses and Dissertations. 7764.
https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/7764
Included in
Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations Commons, Finance and Financial Management Commons
Comments
A 12-month embargo was observed for posting this work on AFIT Scholar.
Distribution Statement A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number on file.