Date of Award
3-2024
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science
Department
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
First Advisor
Edward D. White III, PhhD
Abstract
This thesis analyzes first and second level WBS elements of 59 historical USAF Acquisition Category I RDT&E programs for accuracy and influence on the overall program cost growth. For the accuracy analysis portion, the mean, 15th, and 85th percentiles of common practice estimates at completion are compared with the same percentiles for distributions generated using the data. The results reveal a trend of substantial underestimation of risks associated with cost overruns. For the influence portion, this thesis analyzes the effect that cost growth trends of different second level WBS elements have on cost growth of the overall program through regression analysis. This analysis focuses on the ST&E WBS element, identified as commonly neglected by decision makers yet significantly influential on program cost growth in research by Rosado (2011). This analysis provides a more comprehensive data set, a focus on USAF RDT&E programs, and analysis of other second level WBS elements. The results establish ST&E as the only WBS element analyzed that significantly predicts program cost growth and is highly influenced by improved cost and risk planning.
AFIT Designator
AFIT-ENV-MS-24-M-141
Recommended Citation
Marquis, Kyle P., "Level 2 Work Breakdown Structure Cost Growth Analysis" (2024). Theses and Dissertations. 7759.
https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/7759
Comments
A 12-month embargo was observed for posting this work on AFIT Scholar.
Distribution Statement A, Approved for Public Release. PA case number on file.