Date of Award

9-1993

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Abstract

Each year the Air Force awards weapon system contracts worth billions of dollars using the source selection process. In the source selection, performance and risk assessments are evaluated to determine the best proposal; the proposal that gives the best overall value. The purpose of this research was to investigate the performance/risk trade-off in the source selection decision making process. The study also examined the effect individual risk propensities and the nature of item being evaluated have on the performance/risk trade-off decisions. Air Force acquisition personnel stationed at Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, who had participated in a source selection were surveyed. The survey required respondents to rank various color-risk combinations used in a source selection from most to least preferred. Respondents also indicated their degree of preference between color-risk rating pairs. Comparisons were made for two item summary levels: technical capability and management. A definite rank order exists among color-risk ratings. The rank is as follows: Blue-Low, Green-Low/Blue-Moderate (tied), Green-Moderate, Blue- High, Yellow-Low, Green-High, Yellow-Moderate, and Yellow-High. Risk propensity and item summary level do not significantly influence the rank order.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GSM-LAS-93S-18

DTIC Accession Number

ADA275904

Comments

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Logistics and Acquisitions Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology

The authors' Vita pages are omitted.

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