Date of Award

1-1994

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

Terrance Pohlen, PhD

Second Advisor

Craig M. Brandt, PhD

Abstract

In March 1993, the JLSC selected the Navys Statistical Demand Forecasting System as the standard DOD forecasting system. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance and accuracy of the Navy Statistical Demand Forecasting system, relative to the Air Force Requirements Data Bank forecasting system in an Air Force environment. To compare the performance of each forecasting system, the research used three different approaches. The first approach looked at time series components and evaluated how each forecasting system reacted to different data patterns. From this approach, it was found that under the presence of a trending component, the Statistical Demand Forecasting system generated more accurate forecasts than the Requirements Data Bank system did. It was also found that under the presence of outliers. the SDF system computed more accurate forecasts than the RDB system did. The second approach looked at the actual Air Force data and evaluated the forecast accuracy established by each forecasting technique. The results demonstrated that there was no significant difference in the forecast accuracy between the two forecasting systems.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GLM-LAL-95M-1

DTIC Accession Number

ADA285299

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology.

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