Date of Award

9-1994

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

Wayne G. Stone, PhD

Second Advisor

Thomas S. Graham, PhD

Abstract

With the uncertainties in the current Air Force environment, extrapolated forecasting methods are no longer sufficient for meeting the Air Forces strategic planning needs. The Air Force could benefit from using a more sophisticated method to determine the opportunities and obstacles it will face in the future. The key characteristics that distinguish scenario analysis from other forms of forecasting are the qualitative, contextual descriptions of the future environment, and the identification of several possible futures. This thesis discusses the concept of scenario analysis and its relevance to the Air Force as a strategic planning tool. It begins with an overview of strategic planning and forecasting concepts. The current literature on scenario analysis is then integrated into a single reference discussing general concepts, construction methodologies, and corporate applications. The various approaches to scenario analysis are compared and incorporated into a composite model. Appropriate applications of scenario analysis within the Air Force are discussed, and a step-by-step guide is presented to assist Air Force managers and planners in implementing scenario analysis.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GLM-LAR-94S-5

DTIC Accession Number

ADA285012

Comments

Co-authored thesis.

The authors' Vita pages are omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology.

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