Date of Award

3-1995

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Gregory S. Parnell, PhD

Abstract

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation objectives. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which factors in the model are most important. To demonstrate the model, nine systems from the Air Force wargame Vulcan's Forge 1995 are evaluated. The results are used to demonstrate the type of analysis which can be performed to evaluate U.S. counterproliferation systems.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOA-ENS-95M-8

DTIC Accession Number

ADA293876

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

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