Does A Rubber Baseline Guarantee Overruns?' A Study of Cost Performance and Contract Changes in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

Author

James A. Gordon

Date of Award

9-1-1996

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

David Christensen, PhD

Abstract

This thesis explores the assumption that cost overruns are related to contract changes. A common assertion in defense literature says that contracts which are relatively stable suffer smaller overruns than those which are highly volatile. The stability or volatility of contracts is characterized by their change history. A contract which is modified frequently or by large amounts is more unstable, or volatile, than one which is not changed either as often or by lesser amounts. This study attempts to find evidence supporting this common assertion by examining the relationship between cost growth and baseline stability on over 400 Major Defense Acquisition Program contracts over the last 26 years. The results are intriguing because, counter-intuitively, no significant evidence is found. Possible explanations and implications of this discovery are provided.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GSM-LAS-96S-5

DTIC Accession Number

ADA319331

Comments

Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology

Recommended Citation

Gordon, James A., "Does A Rubber Baseline Guarantee Overruns?' A Study of Cost Performance and Contract Changes in Major Defense Acquisition Programs" (1996). Theses and Dissertations. 6283.
https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/6283