Date of Award

12-1995

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Jack A. Jackson Jr., PhD

Abstract

The Department of Defense has a requirement to quantify the force enhancement effects from various configurations of an envisioned multilayered Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system. TMD research accomplished to date has focused primarily on the pre-launch and in-flight tactical ballistic missile (TBM) operational phases while ignoring the post-launch phase during which mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) are vulnerable to attack. No methodology currently exists to measure the effectiveness of various post-launch counter-TEL system configurations or their potential contribution to the overall TMD mission. This research uses the decision analysis technique of influence diagrams to model the post-launch counter-TEL process using notional variable values to approximate Operation Desert Storm counter-TEL capabilities. A probability of kill (Pk) goal is established based on its effect on the number of enemy missile launches. The study reveals that the level of enemy deception is the leading factor in post-launch counter-TEL success. No single variable under the decision maker's control can be altered to achieve the goal Pk. Additional analysis shows the most promising alternative for improving the baseline Pk is to improve the accuracy of launch point determinations and reduce the initial-sensor-to-shooter timeline; the joint effect being to drastically reduce the impact of enemy deception. Economic risk assessment of post-launch counter-TEL alternatives indicates the optimal decision policy may change according to the importance placed on cost. Finally, the methodology of using a two-level full-factorial design experiment to develop a meta-model is also examined.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GSO-ENS-95-D-04

DTIC Accession Number

ADA303002

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