Date of Award

3-1996

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Jack A. Jackson Jr., PhD

Second Advisor

Jack M. Kloeber, Jr, PhD

Abstract

The Department of Energy is faced with the complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focused on developing a decision support system to aid the decision maker in selecting the best strategy of remediation technologies. A decision analysis model was developed which incorporates life cycle cost data, risk information, and user input, to analyze the technology choices. The research outlined the use of multiple attribute utility theory using exponential attribute utility functions with a simple additive objective function. The best available data was used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and the associated utility. Cumulative and frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. Cost and time plots allow the decision maker to see the trade-offs inherent in the utility functions. The model also allows for sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and can be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-96M-12

DTIC Accession Number

ADA324285

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