Cade M. Saie

Date of Award

9-18-2014

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Darryl K. Ahner, PhD.

Abstract

Dynamic programming is used in many military and industrial applications to solve sequential decision making problems. This research proposes the development of a model and approach to address the application of dynamic programming in nation-building modeling. Through the creation of component indices to capture the state of operational variables: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information (PMESII), a functional form of a system of differential equations is developed to account for the interactions between the state indices and instruments of national power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME). Solving this problem with dynamic programming provides an improved sequence which describes the application of DIME in a manner that minimizes an objective (i.e. cost, time) and allows the model to account for external factors such as an insurgent reaction to US policy. An application of the model is derived for Iraq to demonstrate the utility of the model and explore various aspects of the solution space. This modeling approach offers a potential significant capability when analyzing and planning for nation-building operations.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-DS-ENS-14-S-18

DTIC Accession Number

ADA608970

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