Date of Award

3-1999

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Jack M. Kloeber, Jr. PhD

Abstract

The United States Army Safety Center is challenged with identifying the top ten most severe hazards in Army Aviation. This research utilizes value-focused thinking and multiattribute preference theory concepts to produce a decision analysis model designed to aid decision-makers in their analysis process. The severity model is based on the Army's Risk Management doctrinal manual and has been tailored specifically for aviation related accidents and hazards. The model determines the severity and risk ranking for 65 categories of accidents and 24 existing hazards. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the effects of variations in the weights of the top-level criteria for accident and hazard severity. Recommendations are presented for ways to use the information contained in this report to assist in developing risk reduction controls focused on force protection. The model provides the decision-makers with a decision analysis methodology that is consistent with Army doctrine and the values of the current chain of command at the Army Safety Center. Furthermore the model can be adjusted for different leadership levels or situations.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-99M-16

DTIC Accession Number

ADA361821

Comments

The author’s Vita page is omitted.

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