Date of Award

9-1999

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

Maj Stephen Swartz

Abstract

The Air Force Class A aviation mishap rate has hovered around 1.5 mishaps per 100,000 flight hours since 1985. Recent attention on Air Force accidents has caused the leadership to seek to reduce its mishap rate. The Army's Class A aviation mishap rate declined after it implemented risk management (RM) principles in 1987. This reduction caught the attention of Air Force leadership who have since stated that the application of operational risk management (ORM) is how the Air Force will reduce, even eliminate, mishaps. With current budget constraints, ORM is considered to be the most cost-effective way the Air Force can reduce its mishap rate. The purpose of this research was to determine whether the Air Force can expect its mishap rate to significantly decline due to ORM implementation. This determination is based on the relationship between the Army's implementation of RM and its aviation mishap rate. The analysis of the Army's aviation mishap rates and available causal data was performed primarily using discontinuous piecewise linear regression. Results showed that the effect of RM was not reflected in the Army's mishap rates. As a result, the Air Force should not expect its mishap rate to significantly decline due to ORM implementation.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GLM-LAL-99S-2

DTIC Accession Number

ADA369672

Comments

The author's Vita page is omitted.

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