Date of Award

3-2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Darryl K. Ahner, PhD

Abstract

Commanders and wargamers lack adequate tools to quickly determine the number of mission-capable (MC) aircraft and number of achievable sorties to support wargames and exercises. Even less understood is the impact of available maintenance personnel on sortie generation. The Expected-Number-of-In-Game-Mission-capable Aircraft (ENIGMA) simulation was recently developed to calculate the number of MC aircraft and number of sorties own accounting for the number and type of aircraft, scheduled sorties, mean-time-between-failure (MTBF), and mean-time-to-repair (MTTR). ENIGMA is extended by replacing the MTTR input with functions derived from actual numbers and types of maintenance personnel available. Functions in the form of response surface models are created for each aircraft using data output from the Logistic Composite Model (LCOM), applying both a normal distribution and a Weibull distribution to account for model fit errors. The statistical distribution assumed for the residual errors of the model fit greatly affects model adequacy. Operationally, four scenarios are developed changing the number of personnel, number of aircraft, and number of sorties own. These scenarios result in concluding there is a statistically significant difference between the normal and Weibull prediction functions for average number of MC aircraft. Regardless of distribution, a large difference in number of MC aircraft and number of sorties own between minimum and median personnel levels is observed, but not a large difference between median and maximum personnel levels. The enhanced ENIGMA simulation provides the impact of evolving operational scenarios to include how available maintenance personnel affect sortie generation. The improvements to ENIGMA through implementation of these functions provide the ability to better understand the impact of available maintenance personnel on sortie generation along with the original understanding of the impact of aircraft use.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-21-M-170

DTIC Accession Number

AD1131201

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