Date of Award

3-2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD

Abstract

This research seeks to evaluate the effects of Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) on Cost Growth. It makes use of data from Technology Readiness Assessments (TRA) and Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR) to explore relationships between TRLs at Milestone B and cost growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) and Major Automated Information Systems (MAIS). Programs using higher proportions of critical technologies rated below TRL 7 tend to experience greater cost growth than programs that use more mature technologies. Current DoD doctrine requires TRL 6 to enter Milestone B. The results of this research seek to evaluate the merit of this requirement. TRL usefulness in multiple linear regression models is assessed by comparing against regression models without the use of TRLs. Results indicate relationships between TRL and Cost growth may be driven by omitted variables such as length of EMD phase. A more complete dataset may indicate that TRLs are driving EMD length and provide insight into potential causes of schedule slippage.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-21-M-207

DTIC Accession Number

AD1133757

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