Date of Award

3-2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Robert D. Fass, PhD

Abstract

Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation is commonly used as a cost-estimation method when no historical data exists. The elicitation process assumes Subject Matter Experts are the resident experts in their individual fields of study. In addition, the process assumes SMEs provide reasonably trustworthy cost estimates that follow the tenets of probability theory. This last assumption is the subject of this study. A Navy sponsored e-learning course was created to help train SMEs in understanding probability distributions (O'Hagan, 2019). We conducted a study hypothesizing that taking the e-learning course would improve study participant accuracy in estimating confidence intervals for probability distributions.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-21-M-268

DTIC Accession Number

AD1137989

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