Date of Award

3-2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Raymond R. Hill, PhD

Abstract

The backbone of the United States Air Force is undoubtedly the large civilian workforce that supplements the great work that is accomplished. Many research studies have been conducted on officer and enlisted personnel to ensure that the career fields are properly developed and managed to meet the ever growing demands of the military's varied missions, but no recent studies have focused on the civilian workforce. Striking a balance between new and experienced employees is paramount to success given the ever-changing economic and political landscapes where we find ourselves. The first part of the research uses logistic regression to determine the factors that are important for retention in the civilian workforce over the last ten years (2010-2019). The six variables analyzed were age, gender, race, education level, prior military status, and years of service; all six were significant. Further breakdowns showed differences between the occupational series and between white-collar and laborer positions. Odds ratios indicate the disparity between having a certain qualification or not. The second part of the study uses survival analysis in the form of Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox proportional hazards model to create unique survival curves that display the probability of remaining in employment given the number of years of service for a particular group. Future personnel management decisions can be enhanced using these curves as a basis for understanding the recent retention trends of the civilian workforce.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-21-M-195

DTIC Accession Number

AD1131084

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