Date of Award

3-2000

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Mark Gallagher, PhD

Abstract

In this research, we propose and demonstrate an approach to incorporate currently un-modeled interactions into an existing or a new combat model or simulation. We apply the Leontief Input-Output model, which is a macro-economic model that measures the interactions between major industrial sectors of an economy, as a metamodel that periodically assesses the status of various combat units and support functions. If needed resources are insufficient, appropriate degrades are input into the combat model. As a result, dependencies that are not in the combat model are incorporated. Hence, we can assess the strategic or cascading effects of destroying a set of targets. We demonstrate our approach with THUNDER, the Air Force's campaign model. We estimated the Leontief model parameters with preliminary THUNDER runs. Some of the strategic targets-which formerly had no impact on the scenario-were connected in the Leontief metamodel. We ran the scenario again with degrades from the Leontief model being passed to THUNDER at regular intervals. This work provides a deeper understanding of the military structure as a system. Using the Leontief model as a metamodel is a promising approach for measuring the cascading impact of strategic targets on the entire military system.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-00M-20

DTIC Accession Number

ADA378344

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