Date of Award

3-2001

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Peter T. LaPuma, PhD

Abstract

The U.S. Federal Government has encouraged shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) with three objectives, reducing foreign oil dependence, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria pollutant emissions. This thesis uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict lifecycle emissions and energy consumption differences per kilometer driven from replacing ICEVs with three EV options: lead acid, nickel cadmium (Ni-Cd), and nickel metal hydride (NiMH). All three EV options reduce U.S. foreign oil dependence by shifting to domestic coal. The probabilities that lifecycle energy consumption per km driven improve are lead acid 76%, Ni-Cd 64%, and NiMH 90%. The probabilities that EV substitution reduce global warming gas emissions are lead acid 41%, Ni-Cd 34%, and NiMH 64%. All three EV options increase sulfur oxides emissions. The probability that EV substitution will decrease nitrogen oxides emissions is only 12-14%. The probability that EV substitution reduces particulate matter emissions is less than one percent. The probability that EV substitution reduces volatile organic carbon emissions is lead acid 66%, Ni-Cd 98%, and NiMH 100%. Probabilities indicate that EVs will reduce foreign oil dependence, volatile organic carbon and lead emissions. However the other air emissions will increase and greenhouse gas emissions remain relatively unchanged.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GEE-ENV-01M-10

DTIC Accession Number

ADA389779

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