Date of Award

3-2004

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD

Abstract

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the engineering and schedule SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each. We discover the two-step logistic and multiple regression approach produces desirable results.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GCA-ENC-04-03

DTIC Accession Number

ADA422912

Comments

Title on cover: Estimating cost growth in engineering and schedule cost catergories [sic] using a two-pronged regression approach

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