Date of Award

3-2005

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Richard F. Deckro, PhD

Abstract

Stabilization and reconstruction operations are necessary to secure and maintain the peace in the aftermath of conflict. The complexities of nation-building involve many different but interrelated systems and institutions. The basic structure of a country may or may not remain; its political, economic, and judicial systems, cultural, educational, medical, and military institutions, and critical infrastructure all vitally contribute to the overall progression of stability and prosperity. Understanding the significance of the dynamic relationships between the forces in play during stability and reconstruction operations is paramount to the successful conclusion of such missions. The system dynamics model proposed in this research functions as a support tool allowing decision makers and analysts to investigate different sets of decision approaches at a sub-national, regional level. Concentration on the regional level allows for specific identification and investigation of potentially troublesome regions, providing the model-user with more detailed information concerning the internal dynamics prevalent within the area of operations. Construction of two different measures via logistic regression, a probability of stabilization success and a probability of stabilization failure, provide indication as to the successful execution of stabilization and reconstruction operations. The proposed model is a general construct, widely adaptable to a variety of post-conflict nation-building scenarios. The model is notionally demonstrated using Operation Iraqi Freedom as a test case.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-05-16

DTIC Accession Number

ADA435214

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