Date of Award

3-2006

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

David R. Denhard, PhD

Abstract

In order to bring the doctrine of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) into a fully operational capability, Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) must provide relevant insight to the commander and his planning staff. Assessments of an effects-based plan and execution must include an assessment of the effects of a campaign on the enemy in addition to an assessment of the accomplishment of friendly actions taken to achieve the desired effects. Determining the effects of a campaign requires an analysis of the dynamics of the enemy systems. EBA must be able to recognize the states of the enemy's systems as the system states change over time. This research advances the application of EBA by defining anticipated states of enemy systems, developing indicators to determine those states, and applying progress functions to the states in order to quantify attainment of the commander's objectives. The methodology describes a process for assessing combat and stability operations. The results indicate that the EBA methodology developed in this research works best where the systems of interest cannot be assessed directly.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENS-06-20

DTIC Accession Number

ADA446340

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