Date of Award

3-2006

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Michael J. Hicks, PhD

Abstract

This thesis applies econometric techniques to build a "marginal" cost per flying hour model for the U.S. Air Force's F-15CD and E fleets. It used monthly economic, programmatic, operational, and climatology data from FY01-FY04 to construct Depot Level Reparable (DLR) and Consumable (CONS) models on the aggregate level. It incorporated the use of panel data analysis to explore the effect each of the independent variables had on the CPFH rate by time and by base. This allowed it to capture not only the temporal (time) interactions, but also the spatial (cross-sectional) interactions, providing a more robust analysis of the dynamics between the independent variables, bases, time and the CPFH rates. It discovered the DLR and CONS CPFH rates have a significant business cycle/seasonal trend component. Also, the following variables were found to be statistically and economically significant: average sortie duration, mean monthly temperature difference, and the Zero Base Transfer CPFH program change. These models when compared to the currently available models significantly out-performed these models. On average, the relative error rate for this research's models was half that of the current models. Therefore, an aggregate CPFH model can be developed to accurately forecast the CPFH rates.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GCA-ENV-06M-01

DTIC Accession Number

ADA449995

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