Date of Award

3-21-2019

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Engineering Management

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Torrey J. Wagner, PhD

Abstract

The U.S. Air Force relies heavily on electrically powered facilities to ensure mission-critical capabilities can be carried out. Without a resilient electrical system in place, the U.S. Air Force could be without power for extended periods, resulting in severe implications. Installing a photovoltaic array on an installation is one strategy to improve energy resiliency. The amount of power a photovoltaic array can produce is reliant on its geographical location, position and weather characteristics. This research presents the development of novel linear regression models based upon 14 case studies from global Department of Defense (DoD) installations to predict horizontal photovoltaic power output. The model incorporates Köppen-Geiger climate classifications with location-specific weather and geographical variables to predict horizontal photovoltaic power production. Both Köppen-Geiger climate and weather variables were determined to provide added value to the model. From the analysis, the ideal climate classification was determined to be the Cfb or a fully humid, warm temperate area with warm summers. Additionally, a goodness-of-fit of the full and reduced models was conducted on a validation dataset. This analysis determined that weather variables were able to account for 22% more variation within the validation set compared to climate variables.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-19-M-179

DTIC Accession Number

AD1077142

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