Date of Award

3-21-2019

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD

Abstract

This study is an exploratory analysis combining military construction (MILCON) data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR) of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) with the associated Automated Civil Engineer System project actual costs. The analysis uses both descriptive and inferential statistics to identify cost growth of MILCON at the programmatic level as well as to bridge the gap between SAR estimates and actual project costs within those program-level estimates. Overall, programs experience more negative growth (cost savings) in MILCON estimates on SARs, typically less than 0.2% of the total program cost implying minimal impact to program decisions. Estimates got more accurate from first to last SAR in comparison to total MILCON programmed for all projects within the program. However, the last SAR’s median MILCON cost estimate was approximately $31 million underestimated to projects currently authorized and appropriated for the MDAPs. This could accumulate and impact budgetary decisions of scarce fiscal resources. Several factors were identified as potential drivers to MILCON cost growth within MDAPs, but require more data points for regression modelling. Preliminary research was restricted to 32 programs, 10 with authorized projects accessible for comparison, but initial results suggest building on this exploratory analysis.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-19-M-159

DTIC Accession Number

AD1078123

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